Tejas networks' new order is bigger than its entire fy26 revenue

Monday, 31 August 2026 · pre-open edition · overnight moves, fresh filings & what should matter in today's session

Snapshot · commodities, rates & macro

The big picture: a hawkish Fed chair & $90 oil walk into Monday together, with GDP data waiting at the close

• What changed over the weekend. Two forces, both unfriendly. First, US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech on Friday to say the Fed will "have work to do" if underlying inflation does not return to the 2% target. Markets read that as the door opening to a rate HIKE, not a cut: the probability of a September increase jumped to roughly 46-50%, from 35% a day earlier. Second, the US struck Iranian rocket launchers that were reportedly preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, ending weeks of relative calm. Brent crossed $90 this morning, up 2.3%, & every extra dollar on crude flows straight into India's import bill, the rupee & the inflation arithmetic.
• What Asia is doing about it. Japan's Nikkei fell about 1.8% & South Korea's Kospi 2.2-2.4% in early trade; Australia was flat. GIFT Nifty, the Singapore-traded futures contract that previews our open, quoted at 24,239, down 103 points, signalling a lower start. One correction worth making: a wire item this morning called that a "positive start, GIFT Nifty 0.35% higher at 24,175.65". That 24,175.65 is simply Friday's Nifty cash close & +0.35% was Friday's move; the live futures at 24,239 down 103 are the real cue, & they point down.
• Where Friday left us. The Nifty closed at 24,175.65 (+0.35%) & the Sensex at 77,264.51 (+0.43%), a two-day losing streak snapped almost entirely by IT: the Nifty IT index rose 3.51% after Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year on year, & the implied AI-spending strength lifted TCS (+4.16%), Tech Mahindra (+3.53%) & Infosys (+2.99%). The other side of the ledger: foreign investors sold Rs. 5,040 crore of equities on Friday, the heaviest single day since June 8, wiping out most of August's foreign inflows (net buying for the month shrank to Rs. 454 crore). Domestic institutions absorbed it, buying Rs. 5,184 crore.
• The one domestic event that outranks everything else today. Q1 FY27 GDP arrives this evening. Consensus sits near 7-7.2%, a four-quarter low; the RBI's own projection is 7% & SBI Research is the outlier at 8%. The number tells us how much of the Hormuz oil shock (analysis below puts its cost at 0.38% of GDP) the economy has actually absorbed. Today's session trades ahead of that release, on thin conviction.

Global & overnight markets: Warsh's nine words moved everything

• The US close (Friday). The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,711.76, the Dow was flat at 53,559.99 (down 9.45 points) & the Nasdaq lost 0.5% to 26,402.42. All three still finished the week higher. The seller was the Fed chair's own sentence: "we have work to do" on inflation, delivered at Jackson Hole, which markets translated into a live September hike. Note the US has been fighting above-target inflation for five years running; a chair signalling hikes rather than cuts resets the discount rate on every risk asset, including Indian equities via foreign flows.
• Bonds & the dollar did the arithmetic instantly. The US 2-year yield jumped (rate expectations live there), the 10-year rose 4 bps to 4.72% & the 30-year 2 bps to 5.21%. Futures markets now price a ~46-50% chance of a September hike, up from 35% on Thursday. US equity futures were down a further ~0.3-0.4% this morning.
• Asia this morning. Nikkei -1.8%, Kospi -2.2% to -2.4%, Australia roughly flat. Two pressures stack: the Warsh repricing plus $90 Brent. Oil-importing, rate-sensitive Asia (India included) sits on the wrong side of both.
• The exception worth understanding. Nvidia's quarter ($96.2 billion revenue, up 106%) is why IT was Friday's best Indian sector even as everything else drifted. The AI-capex channel & the rate channel are pulling tech in opposite directions; on Friday the capex channel won. Today, with futures lower, the rate channel gets its turn.

Macro: IIP slowed to 6.7%, GDP lands tonight, & the RBI is mopping up Rs. 6 trillion

• July industrial output, released after Friday's close: 6.7%. Industrial growth cooled from June's pace. Read alongside RBI data showing aggregate sales of listed private non-financial companies grew 19.4% in Q1 & ICRA's projection that India Inc revenue growth moderates to 13-15% in Q2 FY27: the real economy is growing solidly but the second derivative has turned negative, which is exactly what tonight's GDP release will quantify.
• Q1 FY27 GDP: what the range means. Consensus ~7-7.2% (a four-quarter low), RBI at 7%, SBI Research at 8%. The spread is unusually wide because the quarter absorbed the Hormuz oil shock: CREA estimates India paid $22 billion gross ($14.4 billion net, 0.38% of GDP) in additional fossil-fuel import costs between March & August. A reading at 7%+ would say the domestic engine largely shrugged it off; below 7% would hand the bond market a reason to price RBI easing later, except that oil at $90 argues the opposite. That tension is the whole macro story right now.
• Liquidity & rates plumbing. The RBI announced a Rs. 6 trillion variable-rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction, its tool for absorbing surplus banking-system cash so overnight rates do not drift below the policy rate. Alongside, the Centre announced a Rs. 30,000 crore buyback of G-secs maturing October 2026-February 2027, smoothing the redemption hump. The 10-year G-sec at 6.91% is at a two-month high; the rupee at 95.39 is being actively defended with RBI dollar sales. Higher oil, FPI selling & a hawkish Fed all push the same way on the rupee, which is why the RBI's hand is visible daily.
• Ratings check. S&P retained India's sovereign rating at BBB with a stable outlook on Friday, & India Ratings revised its FY27 bank credit growth forecast up to 15%. Neither moves markets today; both matter for the medium-term cost of capital.
• This week's calendar. August manufacturing PMI (Tuesday), services PMI (Thursday), GST collections (~1 September), monthly auto sales from today, & the main global event: US August non-farm payrolls on Friday 4 September, which decides whether the September hike priced at ~50% becomes consensus.