Monday, 14 September 2026 · Ganesh Chaturthi holiday edition · weekend developments, fresh filings & what should matter in Tuesday's session
Note: BSE & NSE are closed today for Ganesh Chaturthi; there is no trading or settlement in equities or derivatives. The next session is Tuesday, September 15. This edition therefore covers the weekend's filings & global developments, today's macro releases, & the conditions building for Tuesday's open.
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | Note |
|---|
| Brent crude | $107.4/bbl | +2.7% (Mon Asia) | Friday settle $104.61; WTI $102.4. New strikes on Saudi Arabia & Gulf shipping; week gained roughly 8-9% |
| Gold | $4,336/oz spot | -0.3% (Mon Asia) | Comex futures settled Friday at $4,408.9; MCX gold closed Friday at Rs. 1,52,075/10g. Higher yields weigh |
| Silver | $64.3/oz | +1.1% (Fri) | Friday close; trackers differ near $64-65. Down about 1% on the week; MCX silver Rs. 2,33,368/kg Friday |
| LME copper | $14,238.5/t | -1.1% (Fri settle) | Fell from $14,390 Thursday as rate-hike expectations firmed |
| LME aluminium | $3,274/t | -2.1% (Fri settle) | Down $69 on Friday; energy-heavy metal yet demand worries dominated |
| US 10-year yield | 4.97% | flat (Mon Asia) | Last week: 2-year +26 bps to 4.63%, 10-year +19 bps; curve flattened into Wednesday's Fed decision |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.01% | +5 bps (Fri) | First close above 7% since June 3, after RBI announced Rs. 1 trillion of OMO bond sales |
| USD/INR | 95.57 | -5p (Fri) | RBI reportedly intervening; crude above $100 & FPI outflows keep pressure on |
| India Aug CPI (due ~4 PM today) | expected ~4.8% | vs 4.45% (Jul) | Poll range 4.5-5%; would be a 20-month high; last CPI before the Oct 5-7 MPC |
| India Aug WPI (due today) | expected ~9.3% | vs 9.78% (Jul) | UBI Research estimate: fuel easing to ~14%, food quickening to ~8.1%, core still ~8.9% |
The Big Picture: a shut pipeline, a hawkish week & a market that reopens Tuesday into all of it
- The weekend changed the oil arithmetic. A drone strike from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline on Friday, Houthi forces reached Perim island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, & fresh strikes hit Saudi Arabia's Jazan province & ships in the Gulf over the weekend. The East-West pipeline is the route Saudi Arabia uses to move crude to the Red Sea & AVOID the Strait of Hormuz, so losing it removes the insurance policy, not just the capacity: up to 4% of global supply is at risk from the pipeline alone, & another 4-5% transits the Bab el-Mandeb. Brent traded near $107.4 on Monday morning, up 2.7% from Friday's $104.61 settlement, after gaining roughly 8-9% last week. A Gulf-Iran meeting in Oman scheduled for Monday was postponed.
- Three central banks decide this week, & the market now expects tightening at two of them. The US Federal Reserve decides Wednesday (11:30 PM IST): after August US CPI came in at 0.4% month-on-month & 3.4% year-on-year with core at 0.3% monthly (above the 0.2% forecast), markets price roughly an 86-87% chance of a 25 basis point hike, which would be the first US hike since mid-2023. The Bank of Japan meets Friday with about a 76% chance priced of a hike to 1.25%. The Bank of England on Thursday is expected to hold at 3.75%. JPMorgan now expects two Fed hikes this year (September & December).
- Asia opened Monday in clear risk-off. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.7%, South Korea dropped more than 3%, & S&P 500 & Nasdaq futures were down 0.5% & 1.1% respectively. Two forces at work: the oil-plus-rates squeeze, & a weekend wobble in the AI trade after Anthropic's chief executive published an essay urging the industry to slow frontier AI development (details in Global Markets below). Chipmakers took the hit: SK Hynix fell 4.3% & Samsung 2.5%.
- India walks into this after five straight losing weeks. The Sensex fell 2.26% & the Nifty 2% last week to their lowest closes since June 11 (23,398 on the Nifty). FPIs have pulled Rs. 13,138 crore out of Indian equities in September's first two weeks, & today's August CPI (~4 PM, expected near a 20-month high of ~4.8%) is the last inflation reading before the RBI's October 5-7 meeting, where a section of the market, including SBI's economics team, now argues for a rate HIKE. Tuesday's open inherits all of this plus whatever the Fed says Wednesday night.