Pre-open edition, ~8:45 AM IST. Informational only, not investment advice.
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Brent crude (Nov) | $105.73 | -1.2% (Fri am) | Settled +3.4% at $106.60 Thu; easing on Hormuz talks |
| WTI crude | $93.20 | -1.5% (Fri am) | WTI-Brent spread widest since May |
| Gold (spot) | $4,273.36/oz | -0.3% | Firmer dollar & hawkish Fed talk; futures up Fri am |
| Silver (spot) | $63.36/oz | -1.7% | Gold/silver ratio widened above 67 |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,765/t | Sep 24 settle | Cash above 3-month; LME stocks fell 1,325 t |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,228/t | Sep 24 settle | Steady; 3-month at $3,252.50 |
| US 10-year yield | 5.10% | 5.22% in Asia | Highest since 2007; 30-year 5.43%, highest since 2004 |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.11% | +6 bps | Highest since May 21; 5-year up 8 bps to 6.82% |
| USD/INR | 95.96 | -23 paise | RBI defending 96 via state-bank dollar sales |
| US jobless claims | 197,000 | -1,000 | Below the 201,000 expected; labour market steady |
| Kansas City Fed mfg | 14 | vs 10 prior | Strongest in over a year; est. was 8 |
The Big Picture
- Thursday was the worst Indian session since July 8. The Nifty fell 383.7 points, or 1.64%, to 23,063.10, its lowest close in over five months; the Sensex lost 1,247.7 points (1.67%) to 73,580.54. The midcap index fell harder (-2.25%), only 3 of 50 Nifty stocks rose, & the India VIX, the exchange's fear gauge, jumped 22.8% to 12.7, its sharpest one-day rise in months. Total BSE market value fell Rs. 2.7 trillion even with NSE itself joining the boards.
- Three forces drove the fall, & they compound each other. First, Irdai's draft overhaul of insurance-distribution commissions (detail in Company News) hammered everything that earns insurance fee income: insurers, insurance-web distributors, banks & NBFCs. PB Fintech, the Policybazaar parent, closed down 36%, its worst session since its 2021 listing (an early report of a 20% lower circuit at Rs. 1,509 was only an intraday stage; exchanges kept widening the band). Second, Brent settled 3.4% higher at $106.60, reviving the oil-import arithmetic that hurts the rupee, inflation & oil-user margins. Third, the US 10-year yield at 5.10%, the highest since 2007, keeps pulling capital away from emerging-market equities.
- This morning offers a partial reprieve. GIFT Nifty at 23,142 points to a mildly higher open (+44). Brent has eased 1.2% to $105.73 on reports the US & Iran are working on a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Nikkei is up 1.3%; Hong Kong is down 1.6%; mainland China & South Korea are closed for holidays. The technical picture stays weak: seven weeks of lower tops & bottoms, with chartists eyeing 22,888-22,500 while the index stays below 23,333.