Weekend edition, Saturday, 10 October 2026: a wrap of Friday's session & the week that ended the longest losing streak in 25 years, Friday's corporate filings, the weekend's oil story & what is likely to matter when trading resumes on Monday.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move (Fri) | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,193.6/oz | +1.5% | Round-tripped the week: ended almost exactly where it began |
| Silver (spot) | $60.70/oz | +2.8% | Rebound from a two-month low; still down on the week |
| Brent crude (Dec) | $104.72/bbl | +0.4% | Hurricane shut-ins vs a Trump no-strike pledge; +2.4% on the week |
| WTI crude (front) | $91.85/bbl | +0.4% | Over 70% of US Gulf crude output shut in ahead of landfall |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,689/t | +1.1% | Official Friday settlement; grinding higher all week |
| LME aluminium (cash) | ~$3,056/t | ~flat | Friday official not yet posted; Thursday official $3,060.50 |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | ~flat | Down 5bp on the week after touching a 24-year high of 5.35% |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.29% | +3bp | Did not join Friday's equity relief; CPI on Monday is the test case |
| USD/INR | 96.71 | rupee +17p | Rupee's best day in weeks; RBI likely sold dollars again |
| Forex reserves (data) | $734.6bn | -$12.9bn | Fourth straight weekly fall; $51bn below the September 4 peak |
| US Michigan sentiment (data) | 46.3 | lowest since May | Consensus expected 47.6-48; US consumer mood keeps souring |
The Big Picture: the longest losing streak in 25 years is over, the arguments against it are not
- What happened on Friday? The Sensex rose 879 points (+1.23%) to 72,472.33 & the Nifty rose 288.65 points (+1.30%) to 22,520.45, a day after closing at a 21-month low. The buying was broad: midcaps rose 1.56%, banks 1.36%, & IT led with +3.02% after TCS's results. That single session turned the week positive (+0.8% on the Sensex, +0.4% on the Nifty) & ended an eight-week losing streak: wires called it a record, but 2001 saw a nine-week slide, so the defensible claim is the longest losing run in 25 years. India VIX, the index of expected volatility, fell 6% to 14.37.
- What drove the turn? Three things landed together. TCS's quarter was received as good enough & lifted the whole IT pack. President Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, which took Brent down about 1% intraday & cooled the oil fear that caused Thursday's fall. & two sold-down sectors got policy relief: hospitals on a cancer-drug margin cap that was gentler than feared, & FMCG names on GST-cut optimism (more on both below).
- Is the pressure actually gone? No. The forces that produced eight straight down weeks are intact: Brent at $104, the US 10-year at 5.24% (foreign investors tend to keep selling emerging-market equities while US government paper pays above 5%), & record foreign selling, roughly Rs. 2.9 lakh crore of FII cash-market equity sales in calendar 2026 so far, the largest annual outflow on record (depository data, which counts flows differently, puts January-September alone above Rs. 3 lakh crore). Even on Friday, FIIs sold another Rs. 3,569 crore while domestic institutions bought Rs. 4,743 crore. One veteran analyst called Friday a bounce within a downtrend rather than a new trend.
- The valuation counterpoint. After a 15% fall in the Sensex this year, the Nifty's trailing price-to-earnings ratio (price divided by the last twelve months' earnings) is about 19.3 versus a historical median near 20.9, & price-to-book is 2.75 versus 3.5. One large fund house's October note argues Indian equities are now at one of their cheapest points relative to other emerging markets in years & has turned selectively positive on large caps. The bull & bear case now disagree mainly about time, not price.
- What decides Monday? Two prints & one storm: September CPI lands Monday evening (the poll median is 5.40% against 4.82% in August; a hot print would harden December rate-hike expectations), HCLTech reports the second big IT quarter, & the pace at which the US Gulf restarts the more than 70% of its crude output shut for Hurricane Isaias will set Brent's opening tone.