Adani walks free in the US as $88 oil pins the open

The Big Picture: Overnight & Setup For Today

• Monday's Indian session ended flat: the Sensex added 43 points to 78,542 & the Nifty added 13 points to 24,584. Under the calm, midcaps rose 0.62%, smallcaps fell 0.27%, realty led (+1.35%) & PSU banks were the clear loser, down nearly 2%.
• Overnight, Wall Street slipped from near record highs as oil jumped: the Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 fell 0.06% & the Nasdaq lost 0.32%. Energy stocks rallied with crude (refiner Marathon Petroleum rose 7.4%), while Nvidia pulled back & dragged tech.
• The oil move is the story. Both Brent & WTI jumped about 5% on Monday: Brent settled at $87.72, WTI at $82.13. Why? Because a US–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz looks farther away. Iran's foreign ministry said that as long as the US naval blockade continues, conditions for reopening the strait "do not exist". Remember that the strait normally carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil, & that both benchmarks had dropped over 7% last week when a deal looked close. So prices are swinging on every headline.
• Asia this morning was mixed: Japan's Nikkei gained more than 2%, Korea's Kospi rose about 0.3 to 0.5%, & Hong Kong's Hang Seng was roughly flat. What is GIFT Nifty? It is the Nifty futures contract that trades in GIFT City before the Indian market opens, so it acts as an early direction signal. It pointed to a soft start at around 24,616.
• That soft start has played out: by mid-morning today the Sensex was down about 360 points (−0.46%) at 78,185 & the Nifty was at 24,468 (−0.47%). Bank Nifty fell 0.86%. Smallcaps, interestingly, were up 0.44%, which tells us the selling is concentrated in largecap banks & consumer names, not the broader market.
• The rupee opened 9 paise weaker at 95.39 to the dollar. Costlier crude widens India's import bill, & that is the mechanical link between Hormuz headlines & the currency.
• The one clear positive overnight: a US court dismissed all criminal charges against Gautam Adani, & Adani group stocks rose up to 3.5% this morning in a falling market (the full story is below in Company News).

Global Markets & Macro

• US. The three big indexes eased from record territory (Dow −0.11%, S&P 500 −0.06%, Nasdaq −0.32%) as the oil spike revived inflation worry. Energy led: Marathon Petroleum +7.4%, CF Industries +6.2%; Datadog jumped 11.5% on results. US equity futures were slightly soft this morning (Nasdaq futures −0.2%).
• The unusual macro setup, in plain language. Unlike the typical cycle, the live US debate this year has been whether the Fed might need to hike rates because tariff- & energy-driven inflation stayed hot. Last week's weaker-than-expected US jobs report pushed those hike expectations down. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is steady around 4.66% & gold is parked near two-month highs around $4,340/oz: bad news for jobs was good news for bonds & gold. Tomorrow's US CPI print is the next big test of that comfort.
• Asia. The Nikkei's 2%+ jump led the region this morning; Kospi rose modestly; Hang Seng lagged. Asian trading is described as drifting while the world waits on the Hormuz outcome & the twin CPI prints.
• India macro calendar. India's July CPI lands tomorrow. June was 4.38% on the new 2024-base series, & bank economists peg July at roughly 4.5% with food-price risks tilted up (onions, edible oils, rice, pulses). The RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% last week, raised its FY27 GDP forecast to 6.7%, & trimmed its CPI forecast to 5.0%. A hotter-than-expected CPI tomorrow would harden the higher-for-longer rate view; a soft one reopens the rate-cut conversation.
• FII flows signal. FIIs were net buyers of Rs. 3,572 crore in index futures & options on Monday, a mildly supportive positioning signal even as cash-market selling pressure persists.

Company News, Decoded

Adani group: a US judge ends the criminal case. Event risk removed, not a verdict of innocence

• What is the Adani group? India's largest infrastructure conglomerate: ports (Adani Ports), power generation (Adani Power), transmission (Adani Energy Solutions), renewables (Adani Green), city gas (Adani Total Gas), cement (Ambuja, ACC) & the incubator flagship Adani Enterprises (airports, new energy, mining, roads).
• The news. Overnight, US District Judge Nicholas Garaufis in Brooklyn dismissed the criminal indictment against Gautam Adani, nephew Sagar Adani & former Adani Green CEO Vneet Jaain: the November 2024 case alleging a $250–265 million scheme to bribe Indian officials for solar contracts while raising over $3 billion from US investors. Crucially, the dismissal is "with prejudice", meaning the US government cannot refile the case. That is what "with prejudice" means in practice: the matter is closed for good. Adani group stocks rose 1 to 3.5% this morning in a falling market, led by Adani Green (+3.5%) & Adani Enterprises (+2.6% to ~Rs. 3,080).
• Sizing it. This was never about a fine. The overhang was access: the indictment had raised the group's dollar borrowing costs, stalled some international partnerships, & sat as a permanent headline risk over a group that funds multi-decade infrastructure with global capital. Removing it lowers the group's cost of capital & reopens US expansion (the group has talked about $10 billion of US investments).
• The other side of the coin. First, this is a procedural dismissal at the Justice Department's own request, not an acquittal on the merits: the judge pointedly criticised the "irregularities" in the DoJ's decision & noted one official had overridden the professional opinions of many others. Second, before approving, the judge required sworn declarations that no promise or quid pro quo (including the $10 billion US investment pledge) was connected to the decision. Third, remember that India's SEBI investigations & the civil suits that followed the Hindenburg-era allegations are separate tracks. The honest take: treat this as a reduction in event risk, not a thesis by itself.