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A lender's profit rose more than four-fold. The clean number is 41%.

Edition No. 3 · 84 min read

Wednesday, 12 August 2026. Brent is back near $90 with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, the US 10-year yield is at 4.70% & the market is now pricing a Fed rate hike in September. India’s inflation print has landed at 4.45%; America’s is still to come.

A note on timing. This edition was assembled through the Indian trading session rather than before the open, so it is a late edition: it carries the full overnight wrap & the pre-open setup, & it also carries what actually happened during today's session where that is known. Where a figure is an intraday quote rather than a settled close, it says so.

SNAPSHOT: COMMODITIES, RATES & MACRO

What Level Move Why it matters in one line
Brent crude $89.63/bbl +72 cents, +0.81% Sixth straight up-session; highest close since 31 July. India imports over 85% of its crude, so this is an import-bill, inflation & rupee story all at once.
WTI crude $83.91/bbl +71 cents, +0.85% The US benchmark. The gap to Brent of roughly $5.7 reflects that the supply disruption is Middle Eastern, not American.
Gold (Comex) $4,473.50/oz +$32.40 Previous close $4,441.10. Still far below the year's high of $5,586.20. Safe-haven bid plus central-bank buying.
Gold (MCX Oct) Rs. 1,54,730 /10g +Rs. 965 Opened at Rs. 1,54,947, up Rs. 1,182 from Rs. 1,53,765. Year's high was Rs. 1,80,779, so gold is roughly 14% below its 2026 peak.
Silver (Comex) $65.90/oz +$0.97, roughly +1.5% Silver outpaced gold today. Previous close $64.93. Year's high $121.79.
Silver (MCX Sep) Rs. 2,37,725 /kg +Rs. 2,066 Opened Rs. 2,37,973, up Rs. 2,314 from Rs. 2,35,659. Year's high Rs. 4,20,048.
US 10-year Treasury 4.70% Eased about 2 basis points Yields slipped on caution ahead of the inflation print, but sit near a January high. Markets price roughly a 51% chance of a 25 basis-point Fed hike in September. A 4.73% figure circulating is a 10 August intraday print, not the 11 August close.
India 10-year G-sec ~6.78% Firm, oil-led Caveat: this is the 10 August reading, the freshest that could be verified. A 7.12% figure also circulates for early August & could not be reconciled. Treat the level as indicative.
India CPI, July 4.45%, released vs 4.38%; poll was 4.50% A slight undershoot of consensus. Food inflation 5.52%. Second straight month above the RBI’s 4% target, which keeps the pause intact without forcing a hike.
US CPI, July Due 8:30 am ET (6:00 pm IST) Consensus 3.4% vs 3.5%; core 2.5% vs 2.6% Month-on-month expected +0.1% after a 0.4% fall in June. This is the single biggest scheduled event of the day for global markets.
India direct tax collection Rs. 8.11 lakh crore +23% year-on-year Net collection as of 10 August in FY27, released this morning. A 23% rise in direct taxes is a strong signal on corporate profits & formal incomes.
Fitch sovereign rating BBB- affirmed Outlook stable Affirmed this morning. BBB- is the lowest rung of investment grade, so an affirmation with a stable outlook is a non-event that removes a tail risk.
RBI repo rate 5.25%, held Unanimous, 5 Aug Stance stays "neutral". The RBI expects inflation to peak in the December quarter, then moderate. Next meeting 5 to 7 October.

A note on the two crude figures. Sources disagreed by up to $3 to $4 on the same day during this conflict: on 10 August one wire had Brent at $87.55 & another at $84.11. The credible band for the last week is roughly $84 to $90, & the $89.63 above is the freshest quoted level at 0053 GMT today. Anyone quoting a single precise Brent number this week without a timestamp is overstating their precision.

THE BIG PICTURE: OVERNIGHT & THE SETUP

One story is driving everything: the Strait of Hormuz is still closed

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