Advent's one vote cost Coforge its chairman

Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro

The Big Picture: oil above $100 has become a rates problem, & rates are now an equity problem

• Where we stand. The Sensex fell 813.35 points (1.08%) on Wednesday to 74,764.23, its lowest close in nearly three months & a third straight losing session; the Nifty ended at 23,431.50, down 0.86%. The selling was led by IT, where the sector index dropped 3.24% in a single day. The proximate causes sit outside India: Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, & US bond yields are at their highest since 2023.
• The chain, spelled out. The US & Iran are attacking each other's shipping; the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude before this war, is moving substantially less oil. Less supply means dearer oil; dearer oil feeds inflation; sticky inflation pushes the US Federal Reserve toward raising rates rather than cutting them. Fed funds futures now price roughly 60% odds of a rate INCREASE at the September 15-16 meeting. Higher US yields pull money out of emerging-market equities & bonds, which is why FPI selling, a weak rupee & falling Indian stocks are arriving together.
• Today's setup, in plain terms. The GIFT Nifty (the Singapore-successor futures contract that trades before our market opens) quoted around 23,480-23,494 this morning, down 60-70 points from its own previous close, pointing to a weak-to-flat open. Asia is sharply lower: Japan's Nikkei down about 1%, Korea's Kospi 1.7%, Australia 1.7%. US futures were modestly higher this morning, a small comfort.
• What could change the mood. Three events inside 48 hours: the European Central Bank decides on rates this evening (a rise is widely expected), US producer-price inflation prints tonight IST, & US consumer-price inflation lands Friday. Those two US prints will effectively settle whether the Fed hikes next week. India's own August CPI arrives Monday, September 14.