Thursday, 17 September 2026 · pre-open edition · overnight moves, fresh filings & what should matter in today's session
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Brent crude | $105.83/bbl | easing | Saudi offering extra cargoes via Oman; WTI $102.2; Indian basket still carries a physical premium |
| Gold (spot) | ~$4,250/oz | -0.7% | Rose to $4,328 pre-decision, reversed after the hike; futures fell 1.61% |
| Silver (spot) | ~$63-64/oz | softer | $64.60 pre-decision; futures fell 1.51% after; a clean spot close was not published by this morning |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,045/t | steady | Sept 15 settlement; Sept 16 not yet published this morning |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,260/t | -1.5% | Sept 15 settlement, eased from Monday's $3,311 |
| US 10-year Treasury | 4.99% | -3bp | Fell AFTER the hike; the long end read the move as inflation-fighting credibility |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.08% | -2bp | Eased ahead of today's Rs 50,000 crore RBI OMO purchase |
| USD/INR | 95.95 | -7p | Six-week low; RBI dollar sales limited the fall; DXY 99.38 |
| Fed funds rate | 3.75-4.00% | +25bp | First hike since 2023, 12-0 vote; dot-plot median 4.1% implies one more this year |
The Big Picture: the Fed hiked, the long end rallied, & Tata Sons' board meets today
- The decision. The US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous 12-0 vote. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been "too high for too long" & named three reasons: a strong economy, inflation above target & Middle East tensions feeding oil prices. He gave no forward guidance, which traders themselves filled in: bets on another hike as early as October rose after the press conference.
- The projections. The dot plot (each official's anonymous rate forecast) has a 2026 year-end median of 4.1%, implying one more quarter-point increase this year; 16 of 18 officials pencilled in at least one more hike & four saw two. For 2027 the committee splits three ways: eight see another hike, six see a hold, four see cuts. Headline PCE inflation is now projected at 3.7% for 2026 & growth at 2.3%, with unemployment lowered to 4.1%. One curiosity: Warsh, unusually for a chair, declined to submit his own dot.
- The market's answer. US stocks fell on the day (Dow -1.21%, S&P 500 -0.45%, Nasdaq -0.01%) but the 10-year Treasury yield FELL about 3 basis points to 4.99%. That combination reads as the bond market crediting the Fed with seriousness about inflation: a hike lowers future inflation expectations, & it is future inflation that long yields price. By Thursday morning US futures had recovered (Dow futures +0.74%) & Asia was mixed: Nikkei +0.33%, Kospi +0.27%, Hang Seng -1.42%.
- What it means for India. The India-US 10-year gap sits near 2.1 percentage points, still among the narrowest in two decades, which keeps foreign debt flows fragile (FPIs sold Rs 2,978 crore of equities Wednesday). A Fed on a hiking path while the RBI faces 4.82% CPI keeps the October 5-7 MPC discussion alive on whether India follows. The rupee at 95.95 is at a six-week low despite RBI dollar sales.
- Today's other centre of gravity. Tata Sons' board meets today, the first Chandrasekaran-Noel Tata face-to-face since the RBI refused to spare the holding company from mandatory listing. Details in the company news section. Meanwhile NSE's Rs 22,560 crore IPO opens to the public today after an anchor book that drew roughly 18 times demand, & GIFT Nifty at 23,227, about 40 points lower, points to a slightly soft open.