Tuesday pre-open edition · informational only, not investment advice
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,148.69/oz | -3.19% | Seven-week low as rate-hike odds harden |
| Silver (spot) | $61.53/oz | -4.31% | Steeper fall than gold, ratio ~67 |
| Brent crude | $106.93/bbl | +1.57% | Tuesday-morning quote; touched ~$108 Monday |
| WTI crude | $93.78/bbl | +1.28% | Brent-WTI gap ~$13 carries the Hormuz premium |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,544.50/t | -1.3% | Risk-off day for metals |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,248.50/t | -0.2% | Broadly flat |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | +~7 bp | Highest since 2007; intraday 5.27% |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.19% | +6 bp | Highest since April 2024 |
| USD/INR | 96.03 | -28 paise | Record closing low; one wire put it at 95.99 |
| IIP, August (announced Monday) | +8.0% y/y | vs +6.7% July | Capital goods +16.9%; mining -5.6% |
| Dallas Fed manufacturing, Sept (US) | 9.8 | vs 11.6 | Production strong, outlook gauges fell sharply |
The Big Picture
- What happened Monday? A proper risk-off session. The Sensex fell 1,124 points (-1.52%) to 72,771.72 & the Nifty fell 360 points (-1.56%) to 22,780.25, a five-month low; roughly Rs. 7.4 trillion of BSE market value was erased in one session, & the market cap of NSE-listed companies slipped below $5 trillion. Every sectoral index closed lower: PSU banks -3%, Bank Nifty -1.99%, midcaps -1.63%, smallcaps -1.85%. Breadth was 1,214 advances against 2,905 declines. India VIX, the index of expected volatility, jumped 12.5% to 13.69.
- Why? Three squeezes at once. Brent touched ~$108 intraday after the US president rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (the strait has now been shut for over 200 days). The India 10-year bond yield rose to 7.19%, its highest since April 2024, which hurts rate-sensitive banks & NBFCs. & the rupee fell 28 paise to a record closing low of 96.03 per dollar, with the central bank visibly defending the 96 level. FIIs sold Rs. 5,353 crore of equities; DIIs absorbed Rs. 5,189 crore.
- What matters this morning? GIFT Nifty at ~22,810-22,835 points to a flat-to-slightly-lower open. Asia is weak (Nikkei -0.9 to -1.1%, Hang Seng -0.45%, Kospi -0.4%). It is also the NSE's September monthly derivatives expiry day, & Monday's Nifty September futures closed at an unusually fat 138.65-point premium to spot earlier in the day before narrowing to 34.65 points at the close, so expect elevated rollover-driven volumes. Note the two wire figures differ because they were taken at different times; the closing premium was 34.65 points.
- The two structural stories to hold in mind. First, US Treasury yields at 5.24% (10-year, highest since 2007) with the market pricing a ~70% chance of another Fed hike on October 27-28: expensive money globally is the backdrop to every risk asset. Second, India's own macro data is strong (August industrial output +8.0%), which is exactly why the RBI's October 5-7 policy meeting is live: a section of the bond market now expects the first rate hike of the current cycle, with the 10-year yield up 52 basis points since the West Asia conflict began.