What happened overnight, what the filings actually say & what is likely to matter in today's session. Informational only, not investment advice.
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,162.84/oz | +1.1% | Rose despite ~70% October Fed-hike odds; pre-holiday Chinese buying |
| Silver (spot) | $61.05/oz | +0.1% | Gold/silver ratio ~68 |
| Brent crude (Nov settle) | $102.59/bbl | -2.6% | Saudi pipeline half-restored, US SPR release; ~$103.7 this morning |
| WTI crude (Nov settle) | $89.38/bbl | -3.5% | Sharper fall than Brent on the US stockpile release |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.26% | +4 bp | Highest since mid-2007; 30-year touched 5.61%, a ~24-year high |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.18% | -1 bp | Off Monday's 7.19%, still near a two-year high |
| USD/INR | 95.98 | ~flat | Held near record lows; RBI dollar sales absorbed the pressure |
| China NBS mfg PMI (Sept) | 50.1 | prior 49.8 | Back above the 50 expansion line; non-mfg 50.2, Caixin-type survey 52.1 |
| US consumer confidence (Sept) | 81.9 | prior 88.6 | A 12-year low; economists expected 89.2 |
| US JOLTS job openings (Aug) | 7.08 mn | prior 7.34 mn | Labour demand cooling; below the ~7.2 mn expected |
| US Case-Shiller home prices (July) | +2.5% y/y | +0.3% m/m | House-price growth still modest against 5%+ mortgage-linked yields |
The Big Picture: a stabilisation, not a bounce, as the worst September in eight years closes out
- What did Tuesday's session actually tell us? After Monday's 1.5% slide, the Nifty fell another 0.28% to 22,716.20 & the Sensex 0.33% to 72,529.07. The index dropped below 22,700 intraday (low ~22,622), then recovered into the close. That pattern, a lower low bought back by evening, is stabilisation rather than reversal: 32 of 50 Nifty stocks still closed lower, the midcap index fell about 1% & the smallcap index 0.7%, so the broader market kept underperforming the headline. India VIX, the index-option-implied volatility gauge, rose 6.6% to 14.54.
- How bad has September been? The Nifty has fallen 5.67% in September 2026, its worst September since 2018 (-6.42%), & now sits roughly 14% below its 52-week high of 26,373. Forty of the fifty constituents fell during the month. The damage concentrated in IT names (TCS, Wipro & Infosys led the month's declines) & lenders with rate-sensitive books (Bajaj Finserv, Shriram Finance). The short list of gainers tells its own story: ports, pharma, coal & cigarettes, defensives & energy over growth.
- Who was selling & who was buying? Foreign investors net sold Rs. 9,980 crore of cash equities on Tuesday (provisional); domestic institutions bought Rs. 6,953 crore, absorbing roughly 70% of the foreign supply. Tuesday was also the September derivatives expiry: foreign investors carried a net short of roughly 2.7 lakh index-futures contracts into the October series, so the positioning that enters the new month is bearish. A quirk worth knowing: during the closing auction session on expiry day the Nifty briefly showed an indicative 2.2% drop before settlement normalised; that was settlement mechanics, not a real wave of selling.
- What matters today? GIFT Nifty around 22,813-22,824 signals a flat-to-slightly-negative open. Four mainboard listings hit the exchanges today (detail in the IPO section). It is the last trading day of the month & the half-year for many funds, so month-end rebalancing flows can distort the close. China's September PMIs surprised positively this morning (manufacturing back above 50), Japan's Nikkei rose ~1.3%, & Brent is steady near $103.7 after Tuesday's 2.6% settlement fall. The heavyweight events come TONIGHT India time: US August core PCE inflation (~6:00 PM IST), the final Q2 US GDP revision, ADP private payrolls & Chicago PMI. A core PCE reading of 0.3% month-on-month or higher would cement the ~70% market-implied odds of a Fed HIKE on October 27-28, & that pricing is what has been driving the US 10-year yield, the dollar & foreign selling of Indian equities. Also today: the Nifty index rejig takes effect (BSE joins the Nifty 50, Wipro exits), & the paper-import minimum price expires (detail below). India's market is shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, & China begins its week-long Golden Week holiday tomorrow.