A plain-language read on overnight markets, the freshest corporate filings & what they mean for today's session. Informational & educational only, never investment advice.
Snapshot: commodities, rates & macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,177.30/oz | -0.1% | Eased to ~$4,140-4,155 in Asia this morning |
| Silver (spot) | $61.11/oz | -0.7% | Still in its 13-year-high zone |
| Brent crude (Dec, new front month) | $98.81/bbl | +2.8% | Expiring Nov settled $103.71; ~$97.9 this morning |
| WTI crude | $91.98/bbl | +2.2% | ~$90 in Asian trade this morning |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.29% | +3 bp | Highest since 2007; 30-year ~5.63%, a 24-year high |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.18% | flat | Opened today at 7.20% ahead of the MPC |
| USD/INR | 95.81-95.83 | +13p | Feeds differ by 2 paise; reopened weaker at 95.98 today |
| US core PCE (Aug) | +0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y | cooler | Consensus was +0.3% & 3.3%; the Fed's preferred gauge |
| US ADP private payrolls (Sep) | +90,000 | above | Roughly 50-68k expected; labour market not cracking |
| US Q2 GDP (final) | 2.2% | revised up | From 1.5% in the prior estimate; Chicago PMI 55.8 |
| Japan Tankan (large mfg) | +24 | 6th rise | FY26 capex plans +11.3%; keeps BOJ tightening alive |
| India fiscal deficit (Apr-Aug) | 41.9% of BE | +19% y/y | GST receipts -3.4% y/y; subsidy spend +24.4% |
| Crisil FY27 GDP forecast | 7.0% | raised | From 6.6%, on Q1's 7.8% & consumption momentum |
The big picture: a soft close to a brutal September, a holiday-shortened week & a quiet-period news vacuum
- Wednesday was the third straight down day, but only just. The Sensex slipped 48.78 points (0.07%) to 72,480.29 & the Nifty fell 95.75 points (0.42%) to 22,620.45 on the September & half-year closing day. Banks did the heavy lifting the other way: Bank Nifty rose 0.69%, with ICICI Bank leading, while pharma (Nifty Pharma -1.84%) & metals dragged. September ended as the worst month since the current fall began: the Nifty lost roughly 5.7% in the month & now sits about 14% below its 52-week high of 26,373.
- The flow picture remains the one that matters: foreigners sell, locals absorb. FIIs sold another Rs. 10,148 crore on Wednesday against DII buying of Rs. 11,272 crore. For September as a whole FPIs pulled out Rs. 35,861 crore, taking the first-half FY27 net outflow past the Rs. 1 lakh crore mark (about Rs. 1.29 lakh crore on NSDL data). The selling is concentrated: financials (Rs. 47,030 crore between April & mid-September), oil & gas (Rs. 33,359 crore), autos, FMCG & telecom; the only meaningful buying went into services & consumer durables, the pockets with visible earnings. Bernstein's blunt note argues FPIs have "little reason" for a structural India allocation & may only return to trade, not to hold.
- Index housekeeping mattered on Wednesday. The Nifty rejig took effect at the close: BSE Ltd entered (replacing Wipro), with Nuvama estimating ~$668 million of passive buying in BSE against ~$230 million of Wipro selling. BSE still fell on the day because index funds had front-loaded the buying; two foreign holders also sold Rs. 2,186 crore of BSE stock in blocks (more in Company News). That is a useful reminder: index-inclusion buying happens before the inclusion date, so the event itself often sells on the news.
- Today opened lower & autos are doing the damage. GIFT Nifty pointed to a gap-down open & the Nifty duly opened at 22,543.70 (-0.34%) & was holding near 22,547 by 10 AM, with Nifty Auto down nearly 3% as September dispatch numbers rolled in (Bajaj Auto's 12% domestic two-wheeler decline is the sore spot; the full story is in Company News). IT is the outperformer, up over 1%, riding Micron's blowout memory results overnight. The 10-year G-sec opened 2 bp higher at 7.20% ahead of next week's RBI policy.
- The calendar now compresses everything. India is shut tomorrow (Friday, October 2, Gandhi Jayanti), so today is the last session of the week; US September payrolls arrive Friday night India time & will be reacted to only on Monday. China is shut October 1-7 for Golden Week (Hong Kong reopens tomorrow), which thins Asian metals & commodity volumes all week. The RBI MPC meets October 5-7, & the poll balance has shifted: 35 of 61 economists in the latest Reuters survey now expect a 25 bp hike to 5.50%. And with trading windows closed across most of corporate India ahead of Q2 results, the filings flow dries up from today until mid-October, so the few announcements that do land carry more signal than usual.