Holiday edition: Indian markets are shut today for Gandhi Jayanti. This brief wraps Thursday's full session, covers the overnight moves & the freshest corporate filings, & sets up Monday, October 5, the next trading day. US September payrolls land tonight IST; Monday's brief will carry them.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item |
Level |
Move |
One-line note |
| Brent crude (Dec) | $101.06/bbl | +3.0% | First settle above $100; China halted October fuel exports |
| WTI crude | $92.09/bbl | +1.9% | Diesel shortage; record refining margins |
| Gold (spot) | $4,167/oz | +0.3% | Holding above $4,150 before US payrolls |
| Silver (spot) | $60.48/oz | +0.1% | US Mint September coin sales doubled |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,335/t | -1.0% | Eased from record zone; China shut for Golden Week |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,120/t | -2.6% | Softer with the base-metals complex |
| US 10-year yield | 5.23% | off 5.34% peak | Intraday high was the loftiest since 2002 |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.21% | +3 bps | Highest since April 2024; MPC decides Wednesday |
| USD/INR | 96.31 | -0.5% | Record-low territory; worst Asian currency Thursday |
| September GST (gross) | Rs. 2.04 lakh crore | +14.7% | Net collections rose 18.1%, fastest in six months |
| India mfg PMI (Sep, final) | 55.1 | vs 52.8 Aug | Seven-month high; below the 55.7 flash estimate |
| US ISM mfg (Sep) | 54.5 | prices paid 77.9 | Ninth month of expansion; inflation gauge jumped |
| US jobless claims | 197,000 | 4th weekly fall | Labour market still tight before tonight's payrolls |
The Big Picture: Thursday's rout stretched the losing streak to a 25-year record, & the holiday changes what Monday opens into
- What happened on Thursday? The Nifty 50 closed at 22,421.95, down 0.88%, & the Sensex at 71,909.70, down 0.79%, the fourth straight losing day. Because Friday is a holiday, Thursday also sealed the week: the Nifty lost 3.1% on the week, its worst weekly fall since March, & logged an eighth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since the nine weeks to April 2001. Over those eight weeks the index has shed 8.7% from its August 7 close of 24,570.65. Only 13 of the 50 Nifty stocks rose on Thursday.
- What drove the selling? Three forces, all global. First, US bond yields: the US 10-year touched 5.34% intraday on Thursday, its highest since 2002, & every rise in the "risk-free" dollar yield makes emerging-market equities relatively less attractive, so foreign investors keep selling (Rs. 9,484 crore net on Thursday alone; domestic institutions bought Rs. 10,042 crore against them). Second, oil: Brent's December contract settled above $100 for the first time, at $101.06, after Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports. Third, the rate cycle at home: a newspaper poll of economists now has 8 of 10 expecting the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday, & costlier money is being priced into rate-sensitive sectors.
- Which sectors bore it? Autos worst: Nifty Auto fell 3.46% to a four-month low even though September dispatch numbers released the same day looked strong (+21% for passenger vehicles). The market read the fine detail the way we do below in Company News: the growth is heavily flattered by last September's GST-deferral base, domestic two-wheelers actually shrank at Bajaj, tractors fell ~21%, & the new CAFE III fuel-economy rules add compliance cost from April 2027. Metals fell 2.35% with China shut for Golden Week. IT was the lone green sector, up 2.17%, helped by Accenture's strong results & FY27 growth guidance of 3 to 6%, which reads as reassurance for Indian IT demand.
- How nervous is the market? India VIX, the index of expected near-term volatility, jumped on Thursday; one data service put the close at 14.44 (up 7%) & a business daily reported 15.69 (up 16%). The two feeds disagree on the level, but both agree on the direction: protection is being bought into the MPC decision. The rupee closed at 96.31 to the dollar, its weakest ever, & the 10-year G-sec yield at 7.21% is the highest since April 2024.
- What does the holiday change? Two big events happen while our market is closed. US September payrolls land tonight at 6 pm IST (consensus: about 90,000 jobs added, 4.1% unemployment), & OPEC+ meets Sunday, with production targets expected to be left unchanged. Monday's open will price both at once, plus the MPC meeting that starts the same day. A strong payrolls number would push US yields & October Fed-hike odds back up, which is exactly the pressure that sank Thursday's session; a soft number does the opposite.