Weekend edition: Indian markets were shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, so this brief wraps Thursday's session, Friday's big US payrolls day, Friday's corporate filings & the conditions heading into Monday's open. Informational only, not investment advice.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,140/oz | -0.9% Fri | Post-payrolls pop to ~$4,217 faded; second straight weekly fall |
| Silver (spot) | $60.37/oz | ~-5% week | Followed gold down as the dollar held near 17-month highs |
| Brent crude (Dec) | ~$102.3/bbl | flat Fri | Fell to ~$99 on G7 reserve release, recovered by close |
| WTI crude (Nov) | $91.3/bbl | -1.7% Fri | US grades hit harder by the diesel-led release plan |
| US 10-year yield | 5.28% | +12 bps week | Dipped on weak jobs, then reversed higher into the close |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.21% | Thu close | Two-year high; dealers see 7.25% possible by MPC day |
| USD/INR | 96.31 | 2-month low | Near the year's ~96.39 record; offshore traded 96.49 Friday |
| US payrolls (Sept, Fri) | +29,000 | vs ~84-90k est. | Unemployment 4.2%; July revised to a negative month |
| India forex reserves (Fri) | $747.6 bn | -$18.3 bn | Biggest weekly drop on record; rupee defence has a visible bill |
The Big Picture: a jobs shock the bond market shrugged off, & a decision-heavy week ahead
- What happened while our market was shut? Friday brought the weakest US jobs report of this cycle. September payrolls rose just 29,000 against expectations of roughly 84,000 to 90,000, unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, & the two prior months were revised down by a combined 60,000, which turned July into an outright negative month. Remember the context: the Fed is in a rate-HIKING cycle (the target range is 3.75% to 4.00%) because US inflation has been running near 3.7% on the Fed's preferred gauge. A weak jobs number in a hiking cycle cuts the case for the next hike, so the odds of an October 27-28 move collapsed to roughly 16-22% from about 26-28% a day earlier. A December hike, though, stayed 80-100% priced depending on the tracker: the market read the report as stalling the hiking cycle, not starting a cutting one.
- Why does the bond market's reaction matter more than the stock market's? US equities liked the news (S&P 500 +0.73% to 7,722.72, Nasdaq +1.19% with Nvidia touching an intraday record). But the US 10-year yield, which briefly dipped toward 5.2% after the report, reversed & CLOSED at 5.28%, up about 12 basis points on the week, after Thursday's intraday 5.344%, the highest since 2002. Even the worst payrolls number of the cycle could not pull long-term US yields down, & those yields are the gravity acting on emerging-market currencies & equity valuations, ours included.
- Where does that leave our market after a brutal week? Thursday closed the Nifty at 22,421.95 & the Sensex at 71,909.70, the fourth straight losing day. The week cost the Nifty about 3.1%, the worst since March, & it was the EIGHTH consecutive weekly decline, the longest run since the nine weeks into April 2001. The rupee sits at 96.31, its weakest close in over two months & within sight of the year's ~96.39 record, the 10-year G-sec at a two-year-high 7.21%, & Brent above $100. Against that, Friday's offshore rupee at 96.49 points to a soft currency open Monday, while HK's reopening fall of about 2.6% on Friday shows Asia is not offering a helping hand.
- What are the two scheduled events that decide Monday-to-Wednesday? First, OPEC+ meets SUNDAY, with core producers expected to hold November quotas steady; with actual output already below targets because of the Iran war, the meeting is more about signalling than barrels. Second, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (the six-member panel that sets the repo rate) starts Monday & announces Wednesday around 10 am. A newspaper poll has 8 of 10 economists expecting a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%, with August CPI at 4.82% (above the 4% target for a third month), wholesale inflation at 9.92% & a rupee down about 6% this year doing the arguing. The RBI also just published the bill for defending the rupee: reserves fell $18.3 billion in a single week, the largest weekly drop on record, to $747.6 billion.
- And corporate India? The exchanges accepted filings right through the holiday, & Friday produced a genuinely useful crop: two real transmission-equipment orders at Transformers & Rectifiers, a Rs. 50,000 crore steel MoU from Shyam Metalics, a Rs. 109 crore GST demand at ideaForge, strong operational updates from Sobha, Adani Ports & Mahindra Finance, & a fresh twist in the Tata Sons listing fight. All of it is examined below, sized against each company's own numbers.