Tuesday, before the open. MPC decision eve: the US bond selloff ground on to a fresh 2002-era high even as the Nasdaq set a record, oil fell on a Saudi price cut, & India heads into tomorrow's rate decision having finally snapped a four-day slide. Note: the Market Scans rankings are this morning's refreshed table.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,163.26/oz | +0.3% | Pinned below $4,200 by a year-to-date-high dollar |
| Silver (spot) | $61.71/oz | +2.1% | Physical demand strong; gold-silver ratio compressed to ~67.5 |
| Brent crude (Dec) | $100.32/bbl | -1.9% | Saudi OSP cut to a 6-year low; G7 release weighs |
| WTI crude (Nov) | $89.43/bbl | -1.8% | Brent-WTI spread above $10 on Gulf war-risk premium |
| US 10-year yield | ~5.32% | +4 bp | Fresh 2002-era high; sources split 5.315-5.347 |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.21% | -1 bp | Eased with oil; 7.19-7.26 range seen into the decision |
| USD/INR | 96.29 | -0.02% | Marginally firmer; near the ~96.39 record ahead of MPC |
| LME copper (3-month) | $14,427/t | +1.2% | Cash premium widened to $73.50; Chile strike risk; official cash settle unavailable |
| LME aluminium (3-month) | $3,130/t | +0.9% | Official cash settle unavailable overnight; 3-month quoted |
| US ISM services (Sept) | 54.9 | vs 55.4 | 27th month of expansion; prices paid 74.0, highest since July 2022 |
The Big Picture: a record Nasdaq, a 2002-era bond yield & a rate decision tomorrow
- What happened overnight? Wall Street closed higher on Monday with the Nasdaq at a record: S&P 500 7,773.99 (+0.66%), Nasdaq 27,477.31 (+1.05%), Dow 51,267.90 (+0.18%). The oddity is that stocks set records while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose about 4 basis points to roughly 5.32%, a fresh high of this cycle & territory last seen in 2002. Equities are leaning on the AI trade to outrun the bond market, & Monday the AI trade obliged: Nvidia touched a record with its market value near $5.7 trillion after adding $150 billion to its buyback.
- Why did bond yields keep rising after Friday's weak jobs number? Because the inflation side of the ledger got worse. September's ISM services index (a monthly US survey where above 50 means the services economy is expanding) came in at 54.9, a touch below the 55.0 expected, but its prices-paid component jumped to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Remember the US is in a rate-HIKE cycle, not a cutting one: the Fed raised rates in September & markets price roughly one-in-five odds of another hike on October 27-28, with a December move still heavily favoured. Weak jobs plus hot prices is the uncomfortable mix the long bond keeps repricing.
- What does it mean for India this morning? Three things line up for today's session. First, oil: Brent's December contract settled 1.9% lower at $100.32 after Saudi Arabia cut its November selling price for Asia to $5 below the regional benchmark, a six-year low, when the market expected an increase of similar size. Cheaper oil is direct relief for the rupee, the bond market & OMC margins. Second, the MPC: the RBI's rate-setting committee is in day two of its meeting, with the decision tomorrow at 10 am & a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50% the polled base case. Third, GIFT Nifty around 22,640 (7:52 am snapshot) points to a flat-to-mildly-positive start after Monday's 0.60% bounce to 22,555.75 snapped a four-day slide.
- The other side of the coin? The US-India trade conversation turned colder over the weekend: both sides now describe the talks as at an impasse or a plateau, with Russian oil purchases & agriculture the sticking points, & the USTR saying a deal is not on the near-term horizon. That walks back the "short strokes" optimism of ten days ago. Foreign investors also kept selling Monday (Rs. 4,699 crore out, against Rs. 5,182 crore of domestic buying), extending a 2026 outflow that has crossed Rs. 3 lakh crore with no sign of turning.