Wednesday, 7 October 2026. Written before the market open. The RBI's rate decision lands at 10 am today, so it is covered here as a preview, not a result.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,156 | +0.4% | A near-record dollar is pinning gold below $4,200 |
| Silver (spot) | $61.36 | +0.5% | Up 26% in a year on tight physical supply |
| Brent crude (Dec) | $101.5 this morning | +0.9% | Hormuz tanker attacks against Saudi price cuts; back above $100 |
| WTI crude (settle) | $89.97 | +0.6% | Sold off early, recovered on Mideast supply-risk headlines |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,505/t | +0.5% | Cash above 3-month: buyers paying up for metal now |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,134.50/t | +0.2% | Steady near multi-year highs |
| US 10-year yield | 5.28% | -3 bps | Eased slightly; still at 2002-era levels |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.196% | -1 bp | Steady ahead of the rate decision at 10 am |
| USD/INR | 96.31-96.42 | ~flat | Sources differ on the exact close; near record lows |
| Services PMI (Sept, final) | 55.2 | vs 54.1 Aug | Faster than August but revised down from the 55.8 flash |
| FADA retail sales (Sept) | 25.37 lakh units | +31.8% | Record month, but on a GST-distorted base |
| US trade deficit (Aug) | $105.6 bn | wider | AI-related imports drove the gap wider than expected |
The Big Picture: a rate decision at 10 am, a GST Council the same day, & oil back above $100
- What happens at 10 am? The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision. The widely held base case is a 25 basis-point hike in the repo rate, from 5.25% to 5.50%. What is the repo rate? It is the rate at which the RBI lends to banks, so it anchors the cost of money across the economy. A hike today would be the first since February 2023: one poll of economists has 8 of 10 expecting it, another has 35 of 61, & roughly half the surveyed economists see a second hike by December. The reasons are familiar: consumer inflation at 4.82% in August (a third straight month above the 4% target), wholesale inflation near 10%, a rupee down about 6% this year, crude above $100, & bank credit growing at about 19%.
- What matters more than the hike itself? Three things in the statement. First, the stance & the language around liquidity, which tell us whether this is a one-off recalibration or the start of a cycle. Second, the FY27 inflation forecast: an upward revision would be the committee telling us it expects the pressure to persist. Third, any comment on the rupee, because the swap market (the 1-year overnight indexed swap sits at 6.26%) is pricing roughly 100 basis points of hikes over the next year, & the committee may want to push back on that. The honest framing: markets have already paid for a hike; the surprise today would be a hold, or a hike with dovish language.
- The same day brings the GST Council. The 57th GST Council also meets today, with a deliberately process-focused agenda: decriminalising arrest provisions for most offences, treating services supplied by global capability centres & overseas branches as exports (a direct cash-flow relief for services exporters), & faster refunds using customs & RBI data. No rate changes are planned. Process reform rarely moves indices in a day, but refund speed is working capital, & working capital is real money for exporters.
- Overnight, the US made new records while oil made new worries. The S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 (+0.58%) & the Nasdaq at 27,599.79 (+0.45%), both records, led again by the AI complex. Brent is back above $101 this morning after Iran-linked attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including one that injured 11 Indian crew members. GIFT Nifty points to a slightly soft open, roughly 35-60 points below Tuesday's close of 22,776.10, which was itself a strong session (+0.98%) led by pharma & the Q2 business-update names.