Monday, 19 October 2026 · Weekend bank results, the overnight picture & what matters before a holiday-shortened week (markets shut Tuesday for Dussehra)
| Indicator | Level | Move | Note |
|---|
| Brent crude (Dec, $/bbl) | 109.86 | +3.7% Fri | Highest since May; trading near $108 in Asia Monday after the Russia waiver |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 101.41 | +3.5% Fri | Slightly lower in Asia Monday, near $100.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,166.39 | +0.2% Mon Asia | Steady near $4,170 early Monday |
| Silver ($/oz) | 56.99 | +0.8% Mon Asia | Down about 13% over the past month |
| Copper (COMEX, $/lb) | 6.53 | +0.7% Mon Asia | COMEX contract shown; LME level not confirmed |
| Aluminium (LME, $/t) | 3,008.5 | +0.8% Fri | Friday official close |
| US 10-year yield | 5.09% | Fri close | Easing to about 5.06% in Asia Monday |
| India 10-year yield | 7.38% | Fri close | Up about 1 basis point on Friday |
| USD/INR | 94.96 | Rupee +0.1% | Friday onshore close vs 95.06 |
| China Q3 GDP (YoY) | 4.5% | vs 4.3% in Q2 | Released Monday; September retail sales up 1.1% |
The Big Picture
- What happened over the weekend? Four of India's biggest private lenders reported on Saturday, & together they tell one story: loans are growing fast (Axis Bank +23%, ICICI Bank +24% excluding one special category, HDFC Bank +16%), but profit growth depends heavily on one-offs in either the current or the year-ago quarter.
- Why does that matter? HDFC Bank's profit rose only 4.7% largely because treasury gains (profits from trading bonds) shrank by Rs. 1,610 crore, while Axis Bank's 38% jump rests on a year-ago quarter that carried a Rs. 1,231 crore one-time provision. Strip out the one-offs & the gap between the banks is far narrower than the headlines suggest.
- What is the global mood? Wall Street fell on Friday (Nasdaq −2.1%) on worries about how AI spending will be financed, & Asian markets opened lower on Monday. US index futures were higher on Sunday evening, though, as buyers returned to technology shares.
- What about oil? Brent closed at $109.86 on Friday, its highest since May, then slipped to about $108 in Asia after the US waived tariffs of up to 100% that would have hit the largest buyers of Russian oil, India among them. For India, that removes a trade threat while crude stays painfully expensive.
- Two policy moves worth knowing: oil companies have set sugar diversion for ethanol at zero for the 2026-27 supply year, & the drug-price regulator has capped trade margins on 137 cancer drugs at 30% of the retail price from 9 November.
- The calendar: Indian markets are shut on Tuesday, 20 October for Dussehra, so Monday is a full session followed by a break. Bajaj Finance, UltraTech Cement, Hindustan Zinc & Union Bank of India report today, & the Jio Platforms IPO takes anchor bids today.