Thursday, 8 October 2026, before the market open. What happened overnight, the freshest corporate filings, & what should matter in today's session.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Gold (spot) | $4,108/oz | -1.3% | Two-month low; strong dollar & multi-decade-high US yields |
| Silver (spot) | ~$60.7/oz | -1.1% | Eased with gold; just holding the $60 line |
| Brent crude (Dec) | $100.20/bbl | -0.4% | Settled lower on the IEA release plan; back to ~$101.5 this morning |
| WTI crude (Nov) | $88.28/bbl | -1.3% | Reversed an intraday push above $90; ~$89.4 in Asia |
| US 10-year yield | 5.29% | ~flat | Touched ~5.36% intraday, a two-decade high, before a strong auction |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.24% | +5 bps | Highest close since December 2023 after the rate hike |
| USD/INR | 96.78 | -35 paise | Second-weakest close ever; record low is 96.96 intraday |
| RBI repo rate (announced Wed) | 5.50% | +25 bps | First hike since Feb 2023; stance now "calibrated tightening" |
| India FX reserves (announced Wed) | $734.6 bn | 4th weekly fall | Down ~$50 bn from the $785.7 bn peak of 4 September |
The Big Picture
- India has formally joined the global tightening cycle. The RBI's monetary policy committee raised the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends overnight money to banks, by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday, the first increase since February 2023. The vote on the hike was unanimous, 6-0, & the stance moved from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening" on a 4-2 vote. The governor said plainly that rate cuts are off the table in the near term: every meeting from here is either a hike or a pause.
- Markets took it as the start of a cycle, not a one-off. The Sensex fell 429 points (0.59%) to 72,638.70 & the Nifty fell 0.76% to 22,603.05. The 10-year government bond yield settled at 7.24%, its highest close in almost three years, & the rupee ended at 96.78 to the dollar, its second-weakest close ever. Dealers in the bond market now treat a December hike as close to certain, with most economists pencilling in a terminal repo rate, meaning the peak rate of this cycle, of 6% to 6.25%.
- The US is telling the same story. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, released overnight, showed a unanimous 12-0 vote behind the September hike to 3.75-4.00% & most participants expecting another hike by December. Futures markets put roughly 84% odds on a December move. The US 10-year yield touched ~5.36% intraday, around two-decade highs, & the dollar index sat near its strongest since April 2025, an 18-month high set Monday. High global yields & a strong dollar are precisely the backdrop in which the RBI cannot afford to look soft on inflation.
- Today brings three separate events worth attention. The GST Council meets in Delhi (it did not meet Wednesday as some wires suggested; the meeting was rescheduled to today) with an agenda about compliance relief rather than rates. TCS reports its September-quarter results this evening, the first of the large IT companies & the unofficial opening of results season. & mainland China's markets reopen this morning after the week-long Golden Week holiday, catching up to a week of global selling. GIFT Nifty around 22,600 points to a flat-to-slightly-lower open at home.