Varun Beverages, maker of India's Pepsi, is entering the alcohol business

Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · pre-open edition · overnight moves, fresh filings & what should matter in today's session

Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro

The big picture: oil is doing the work this morning

• The overnight driver. Brent crude fell about 2% overnight to $86.80 a barrel, extending Tuesday's slide, after Iran said it had resumed talks with neighbour Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Two days ago Brent was near $93, so the war-risk premium is deflating quickly. Markets have also decided that Washington's new secondary-sanctions package on Iran is economic pressure rather than a step toward wider military escalation, & economic pressure historically leaks: Iranian crude keeps finding buyers.
• What that means for today's session. GIFT Nifty at 24,560 (up 0.32% at 7:45 AM) points to a positive open on top of Tuesday's close (Sensex +287 points at 77,656, Nifty +115 at 24,335). Cheaper crude is a direct margin gain for oil marketing companies (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL buy crude & sell fuel at sticky retail prices), for aviation & for paints, & a direct revenue loss for upstream producers (ONGC, Oil India, the newly listed Vedanta Oil & Gas). It also helps the two numbers the bond & currency markets care about: imported inflation & the trade deficit.
• The two domestic events. One, a Rs. 1,417 crore block deal in Welspun Corp is expected today, with the promoter group & the MD selling at a floor of Rs. 2,250, about 3.5% below Tuesday's close (detail in Company news below). Two, the Hindustan Copper offer for sale opens to retail investors today after institutions bid 3.41 times their portion on day one.
• The two global events. Nvidia reports results after tonight's US close; consensus expects roughly $92.3 billion of quarterly revenue, & the AI-capex complex worldwide trades off that number. On Friday the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole & the US PCE inflation report lands the same day.
• Housekeeping. Equities trade normally today, but it is a settlement holiday for Id-E-Milad (trades execute, funds & shares settle later) & the currency derivatives segment is closed.

Global & overnight markets

• US close (Tuesday). S&P 500 +0.32% at 7,677, Nasdaq +0.66% at 26,151, Dow +160 points (+0.30%) at 53,580, the Dow's third straight gain. Semiconductor stocks led ahead of Nvidia's results tonight; Treasury yields fell almost 8 basis points at the 10-year (4.63%), which did much of the lifting. Consensus for Nvidia: EPS around $2.09 on roughly $92.3 billion revenue; commentary on the Rubin chip cycle will move AI-linked stocks globally, including Indian industrial & power names tied to data-centre capex.
• Asia this morning. Modest gains: Nikkei +0.30%, Kospi +0.77%, ASX 200 flat. The mood is cautious-positive into Nvidia rather than risk-off.
• Tuesday in India, for the record. Sensex 77,656.09 (+0.37%), Nifty 24,334.55 (+0.48%), led by healthcare, pharma & PSU banks; the Nifty Midcap index made a new high (+0.54%) while smallcaps lagged (-0.10%). Adani Enterprises (+3.72%) was the top Nifty gainer. September Nifty futures closed at a 150.65-point premium to spot, a mildly constructive positioning signal. FII/DII cash figures for Tuesday were not published by press time; on Monday both were net buyers (FII +Rs. 1,182 crore, DII +Rs. 2,493 crore).
• Crypto, for context. Bitcoin crossed $80,000, helped by ETF inflows & a weaker dollar. We note it as a risk-appetite gauge rather than a recommendation of any kind.

Macro: nothing released, but three quiet signals

• The honest line first. No Indian macro data was announced in the last 24 hours. The next scheduled release that matters is Q1 FY27 GDP on Monday 31 August; the US PCE inflation report lands Friday.
• Signal one: the RBI minutes. The latest policy minutes indicated a rate hike could be considered later in the fiscal year if inflation risks build. The repo rate sits at 5.25% after four straight pauses. A central bank hinting at hikes while the 10-year G-sec sits at 6.85% explains why bond investors are demanding more yield from corporate issuers, which connects directly to the next point.
• Signal two: Rs. 94,500 crore of bond issues withdrawn. Companies & institutions including NABARD, PFC, SIDBI & IOC have pulled roughly Rs. 94,500 crore of planned bond issuances because the yields investors demanded were higher than issuers would pay. When high-grade issuers walk away from their own fund-raises, borrowing costs are biting; watch whether this pushes more borrowing to banks (positive for credit growth, negative for NBFC pricing power).
• Signal three: the derivatives plumbing changed quietly. The first monthly expiry under the closing auction session (CAS, the new mechanism where closing prices are set in a short auction rather than a weighted average of last-half-hour trades) passed with derivatives turnover of Rs. 569 trillion, down about 4% from the previous expiry. A structural change absorbed without disruption is itself the news.