Monday, 12 October 2026 · Pre-open edition · Weekend filings, a falling oil price & tonight's inflation number
Snapshot · Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Brent crude (Dec, settlement) | $104.72 | +0.4% | Friday settle; quoted near $103.2 this morning on the energy-ceasefire news |
| WTI crude | ~$91.85 | -1.7% today | Near $90.3 this morning; unusually wide gap to Brent on US-Europe shipping costs |
| Gold (spot) | $4,193.6 | +1.0% | Above $4,200 this morning, a third straight gain |
| Silver (spot) | $60.70 | +2.8% | Friday's bounce held; near $61 this morning |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,689 | flat | Friday official; still in record territory |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,055.5 | -0.2% | Friday official; third daily slip from the Oct 7 high |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | -5 bp w/w | Off the 5.35% 24-year high; US bond market shut today (Columbus Day) |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.29% | +3 bp | Did not join Friday's equity relief; tonight's CPI is the next driver |
| USD/INR | 96.71 | +17p | Rupee firmed Friday on reported RBI defence of the 97 level |
| India Sept CPI | due 4 PM | poll 5.40% | Poll range 4.90-5.90% vs 4.82% in August; released this evening |
The Big Picture
- The weekend's one genuinely new macro fact is about oil. On Sunday the US President announced that Ukraine & Russia have agreed to stop attacking each other's energy facilities, days after a separate deal under which Russia will supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to US & global markets immediately, another 500,000 tonnes in November & a further 1 million tonnes after that. Brent's December contract, which settled at $104.72 on Friday, was quoted near $103.2 this morning, down about 1.5%. The caution: Ukraine's president says he is still waiting to see the ceasefire's details & Russia has not commented, so this is an announcement, not yet a verified change in supply.
- Why a $1.5 fall in Brent matters more here than it sounds. India imports most of its crude, & a working rule from this year's budget arithmetic is that every $1 per barrel change in the average price moves the country's import bill by roughly Rs 15,000 to 17,000 crore a year. A durable move from $105 toward $100 would be worth roughly Rs 75,000 crore a year to the import bill, which is why the rupee & the bond market care more about this ceasefire than about most corporate news.
- The session ahead is a quiet open with a loud evening. GIFT Nifty futures near 22,630 point to a marginally firmer start after Friday's 1.3% relief rally snapped the longest weekly losing streak in 25 years. The real event lands at 4 PM: September CPI, where a poll of 41 economists has a median of 5.40% against 4.82% in August. HCL Technologies reports its September quarter after the close, the first large IT result since TCS, & the US bond market is shut for Columbus Day, so there is no Treasury-yield signal until tomorrow.
- Asia is mixed rather than directional this morning. South Korea's KOSPI fell about 2.2%, catching up with last week's global weakness after a Friday holiday; Hong Kong rose 0.6%; Japan is closed for Sports Day; Australia gained 0.7%. US stock futures were up about 0.3% in early trade.