Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Overnight to pre-open: what moved after Monday's close & what matters for today's session
Note: market screeners' constituent pages did not load this morning, so the stock-level scores for three of the five industries in Market Scans (polyester yarn, electronics & opalware) are Monday morning's readings; the industry ranking itself is today's.
Snapshot: Commodities, Rates & Macro
| Item | Level | Move | One-line note |
|---|
| Brent crude (Dec) | ~$106.6/bbl settle; ~$105.5 in Asia | +1.8% Mon | Houthi strike on Riyadh & tanker attacks outweighed the energy-ceasefire talk |
| WTI crude (Nov) | ~$93.7/bbl; ~$92.7 in Asia | +2.1% Mon | Easing about 1% this morning |
| Gold (spot) | ~$4,165/oz | -0.7% vs Fri | Higher real yields keep a lid on it |
| Silver (spot) | ~$60.05/oz | -1.1% vs Fri | Tracking gold lower |
| LME copper (cash) | $14,822/t | +0.9% vs Fri | Near record territory |
| LME aluminium (cash) | $3,055/t | flat | Unchanged on Friday's official |
| US 10-year Treasury | 5.24% (Fri); ~5.21% in Asia | bond market shut Mon | Columbus Day; trading resumes today |
| India 10-year G-sec | 7.39% | +9 bp | Highest since 10 March 2023, on RBI liquidity tightening |
| USD/INR | 95.78 | rupee +~1% | Biggest one-day gain since 2 April after RBI curbs |
| India CPI (Sept) | 5.54% | from 4.83% Aug | Above the ~5.40% poll; food inflation 7.74% |
The Big Picture
- What happened since Monday's close? Three things landed together. September retail inflation came in at 5.54%, above the 5.40% economists expected & the highest reading this year. The 10-year government bond yield jumped 9 basis points to 7.39%, the highest since March 2023, because the RBI's weekend package to defend the rupee also drains cash from the banking system. & Brent crude settled around $106 a barrel after a Houthi strike on Riyadh airport, so the energy-ceasefire headlines that pulled oil lower on Monday morning did not hold.
- Why does the bond move matter so much? A bond yield is the return a buyer locks in at today's price, so when yields rise, prices fall & borrowing costs for everyone else follow. Banks are hit twice: their bond investments lose value & the RBI now wants them to keep at least 99% of the required cash reserve every single day from 16 October, up from 90%. That is why banks lost about Rs. 30,610 crore of market value on Monday & accounted for 38 of the Nifty's 157-point fall.
- How did the market close? The Nifty 50 fell 0.70% to 22,363.35 & the Sensex 0.76% to 71,924.68. Smaller companies went the other way: the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 1.42%, a sign that money is rotating out of rate-sensitive large banks & consumer names rather than leaving equities altogether. Foreign investors sold a provisional Rs. 1,708 crore in cash while domestic institutions bought Rs. 3,045 crore.
- What does today look like? GIFT Nifty was up about 51 points at 22,421 shortly before 8 AM, pointing to a slightly firmer open. Asia is weak: South Korea's KOSPI fell between 6% & 7% on a memory-chip selloff & Japan's Nikkei about 2.5% on reopening. HCLTech's results, the rupee's follow-through & the Rs. 25,000 crore government bond auction will shape the session.
- The synthesis:Inflation, bond yields & oil are now all pointing toward a second RBI rate increase in December, while the RBI is spending liquidity to defend the rupee. That combination favours exporters & companies with net cash, & works against lenders & rate-sensitive consumer businesses.